Business: Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part I
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From TheStreet.com Network
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer provides a look at the first six Dow stocks: Alcoa, American Express, AT&T, Bank of America, Boeing and Citigroup.
Every year I do a bottom-up analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is not the usual "I think the Dow goes to 14,000 by year-end" kind of prediction, because I believe that has little value and is just thumb-sucking. All my investing career, I have preferred looking at projections for each individual stock and then adding up what they produce as a return to find out what the percentage gained or loss might be.
This year will be particularly difficult to divine, in part because I believe that it will be split between two halves: the pre-bottom in housing and the post-bottom. The post-bottom, with interest rates that I believe are going to 4.5% for conforming loans and 5% for jumbos and a decline of another 20% in home prices, may not leave people in existing homes happy about their situation -- and therefore their wealth -- but it will certainly flush out the millions of people who have been waiting on the sidelines, and very few new homes are being built.
Of course that's a huge positive.Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part I
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part I originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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